Not ready, not set, not go (Sweden rant #2)

We need to consider American core values and competences, before we can judge whether the USA should follow Sweden’s example.  We highly value human life.  We are very good at figuring out how to “manage” diseases on a large scale—given enough time (and at very high cost). 

So we are trying desperately to postpone coronavirus spread until we can treat very high numbers of patients effectively.  “Proning” is one recent example, now remdesivir is another, of strategies that took us time to figure out, but which were worth waiting for.  And a recent study implies significant potential to re-purpose existing drugs and compounds quickly against COVID-19.

Of course, the ultimate solution is a vaccine--and both Dr. Fauci & Bill Gates, who are normally quite cautious, have recently expressed optimism on rapid availability.

Unfortunately, for decades we have grossly neglected to exercise our core competence in prevention, beyond tobacco.  We reduced US smoking by ⅔--but then did virtually nothing as child obesity and teen prediabetes skyrocketed (not to mention opioid addiction).  Now, as Mayo Clinic declared, “sitting is the new smoking.”  According to the CDC, the 60% of US adults with chronic disease, much of it from inactivity and unhealthy nutrition, generate the vast majority of our health costs. Not surprisingly, these adults with underlying health conditions are at significant risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19.  

Following the “Swedish model” now would accelerate viral spread before our health system is prepared, killing hundreds of thousands more than necessary. We can get the jobs back, eventually--but not lost lives. Thanks to the prosperity and fiscal responsibility of many past generations, our government can afford to be careful.  Let’s “re-open” as quickly as possible with proper preventive measures, until we can safely handle our normal chronic-disease-fueled volumes plus coronavirus.