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Chronically Miscalculating with Pandemic Math: USA ≠ Sweden

There has been a lot of talk about using the “Swedish model” to more aggressively “re-open” the US economy.  We have to be realistic about what we can learn from a country as different as Sweden: it’s a bit like comparing a fast-food drive-thru to a smorgasbord.  

 For example, only about 20% of Americans are active in sports compared to about half of Swedes--this has a huge impact on underlying health, but unfortunately we are a long way from closing that gap.

We have known for months--and was anyone really surprised?-- that underlying chronic disease appears to dramatically increase COVID-19 hospitalization & mortality.  Per OECD data, the USA has 2x worse diabetes prevalence than Sweden, and is 1.5x Sweden on overweight/obesity (undoubtedly even worse, when severity of obesity is considered). 

In addition, Sweden has greater public trust in government & therefore more voluntary policy compliance. 

Sweden has also had a 5x higher pandemic death rate than several of its Scandanavian neighbors. So there is a major price to pay with that model--at least short-term.

 The fatal bottom line: If the USA seeks rapid COVID-19 "herd immunity," as Sweden is doing, it would be even deadlier here--because such a high percentage of our children and adults are unhealthy already--and particularly vulnerable to bad coronavirus outcomes.

Let’s face it:  we have put our own people at risk through 40+ years of inaction on unhealthy habits.  Until we do MUCH MORE with prevention, and develop a more active population with healthier nutrition, the USA will continue to be a world leader in chronic disease & health costs. We will remain highly vulnerable to unexpected acute health crises, including novel viral epidemics--and related financial side-effects.

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