Skip to main content

Chronically Miscalculating with Pandemic Math: USA ≠ Sweden

There has been a lot of talk about using the “Swedish model” to more aggressively “re-open” the US economy.  We have to be realistic about what we can learn from a country as different as Sweden: it’s a bit like comparing a fast-food drive-thru to a smorgasbord.  

For example, only about 20% of Americans are active in sports compared to about half of Swedes--this has a huge impact on underlying health, but unfortunately we are a long way from closing that gap.

We have known for months--and was anyone really surprised?-- that underlying chronic disease appears to dramatically increase COVID-19 hospitalization & mortality.  Per OECD data, the USA has 2x worse diabetes prevalence than Sweden, and is 1.5x Sweden on overweight/obesity (undoubtedly even worse, when severity of obesity is considered). 

In addition, Sweden has greater public trust in government & therefore more voluntary policy compliance. 

Sweden has also had a 5x higher pandemic death rate than several of its Scandanavian neighbors. So there is a major price to pay with that model--at least short-term.

The fatal bottom line: If the USA seeks rapid COVID-19 "herd immunity," as Sweden is doing, it would be even deadlier here--because such a high percentage of our children and adults are unhealthy already--and particularly vulnerable to bad coronavirus outcomes.

Let’s face it:  we have put our own people at risk through 40+ years of inaction on unhealthy habits.  Until we do MUCH MORE with prevention, and develop a more active population with healthier nutrition, the USA will continue to be a world leader in chronic disease & health costs. We will remain highly vulnerable to unexpected acute health crises, including novel viral epidemics--and related financial side-effects.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Is it a “Miracle Drug”?...if it Costs a Fortune and Creates Lifelong Dependency...&...Saggy Faces!?

[It’s been a while since our last blog post.  A lot has happened since– including some “miracles” ! So we’re going to do two posts in a row…] Normally we should all be happy about miracle drugs... shouldn't we ? Yes, there is lots of upside from taking semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy), tirzepatide (Montjaro)--and upcoming new, even-more-miraculous drugs TBD:  losing huge amounts of weight quickly, a much lower risk of diabetes–and probably less heart disease and other chronic conditions as well.  But what if the “miracle” requires:   $200-300/week, with a lifetime cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars…  a drug that you can never quit…because if you stop taking it, you gain back all the weight it helped you lose–not to mention the chronic diseases which the drugs kept at bay… and it leaves your face (and the rest of your skin?) sagging …    (plus, it’s so new at such high dosages– who knows what happens after years of use…? ) No doubt, in spit...

Smoking out the pessimism on changing health habits: adult smoking is down 2/3 !!

Only 14% of US adults smoke now --compared to 42% just over 50 years ago. That's a 2/3 decline. Yet many of us think that we can't change Americans' unhealthy activity & nutrition habits. Why has smoking gone down so dramatically, while obesity & diabetes keep going up?  Well, we actually seriously tried, as a society & a political system, to reduce smoking.  We have not seriously tried to reverse obesity & diabetes. How did we reduce smoking so much?  Here is my grading of how poorly we are doing, at using strategies that worked against smoking--to fight inactivity & unhealthy nutrition: - Broad & profound awareness of seriousness of problem  (D) - Strong physical & health education programs in schools  (D) - Hard-hitting, pervasive public information campaigns  (F) - Very strong government health warnings  (D) - Large insurance premium discounts for healthy behavior  (D) - Cost-effective behavior cessati...

Chronic disease at core of Big Apple COVID-19 deaths

A recent summary of COVID-19-related deaths in New York City  confirms the much higher mortality risks among those with underlying health conditions.  Among the >80% of fatalities for which underlying condition status was known, only 0.8% of  those dying  had no chronic disease.  As we know from prior reports, obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease are underlying conditions very frequently associated with novel coronavirus deaths. Furthermore, chronic diseases make up the vast majority of "underlying conditions" among those who die.  (See earlier blog post.)  This pandemic has been another wake-up call on the continued dangers of failing to prevent the widespread inactivity & unhealthy nutrition leading to epidemic chronic disease.  Will we start making a serious effort to develop healthy habits, particularly K-12?  Or will we continue to hit the snooze button as health worsens?