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To Re-Open Or Not To Re-open Schools?--That is the Question!

My take so far on school reopenings based on very preliminary data: 

- The countries with the best school reopening track records have typically had quite restricted formats such as very small, highly distanced class sizes plus low country COVID-19 case levels per capita--many less infections per person than in the USA.  So we need to realize that we can't just copy what they did.

- The biggest risk seems to be to teachers & staff.  Kids are less vulnerable & less infectious.  We need to consider all of them, and parents, too!

- If we can flatten the state curve & have hospital capacity, it seems worth letting schools without local spikes reopen very carefully physically--including with recess! 

- Then track closely & share immediately what is happening & learn from each other.

- Let's get real:  Given the shortcomings of our hastily improvised hybrid teaching models, by this time next year, we could easily have lost on average 1/2 year or more of learning, particularly among lower-income students.  Yet we will have less tax revenue to pay for recovery-learning, due to the economic downturn & family budgets.

- So a big part of the risk to kids that we need to consider is their overall K-12 educational & health attainment, which will determine much of their lifelong socioeconomic well-being.  We can't just focus on what they are risking right now.

- The coronavirus pandemic is much more deadly due to the 40+ year pre-existing epidemic of chronic disease:  heart disease, obesity, diabetes, etc.  Younger adults with severe obesity, which typically started as child inactivity & obesity, seem to be at particularly high risk for their age from COVID-19. 

- The chronic disease epidemic is being caused more than anything else by inactivity & unhealthy nutrition.  Yet the viral pandemic is reducing activity & healthy nutrition further for children, by decreasing recess, PE, health ed, school meals, etc.--not to mention the stress & social-emotional impact.  The pandemic is accelerating a pre-existing downward spiral.

- It's time to start considering both short- and long-term how we should proceed in the coming months!

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